The only red state that REALLY matters

When the Soviet Union imploded, there were hundreds of theories of what would happen to the land and people it used to consist of. One idea was that, since the USSR contained something along the lines of 500 distinct ethnic groups, the term "Balkanization" would be changed to "Transsiberification" as the once-monolithic nation dissolved into 500 tiny and constantly warring city-states (or, further east, hamlet-states). Though skeptical, I was a huge fan of this theory. It meant job security for a young Slavophile.

The Chechen rebellion was supposed to be the snowflake that started the avalanche, but seeing the writing on the wall, the Russians refused to let them go easily and answered their guerrilla insurgency with a conscripted conventional force with superior firepower and numbers, a strategy that worked out so well for them in Afghanistan in the 1980s, heh heh heh. Seriously, despite my sarcastic jab, this approach towards the Chechens wasn't pretty but it worked: a nasty, vicious war that has killed more civilians than combatants and is still in progress. Not exactly an encouraging example to any other restless ethnic would-be rebels. The lesson to the other former Soviet republics is simple: be as excessively brutal as possible when faced with a separatist movement, and everything will be ok. At least, your political borders will be.

Oddly enough, the one former Soviet republic not to take this lesson to heart is Georgia, birthplace of Josef Stalin. Back in 1993, two separatist groups won de facto independence from Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which managed this through a mixture of tenacity, remarkable fighting ability, drawing allies from elsewhere in the region, and support from Russia. Yes, you read that correctly! Russia did actually work towards destabilizing one of its own former client states. This is because Georgia is predominantly a pro-Western state and thus, doesn't always row in sync with Russia--Georgia has even been known to allow Chechen rebels to enter the country to rest and rearm. Now, tensions are rising again between South Ossetia and Georgia, and Abkhazia is responding to this development by massing soldiers on its border with Georgia, very likely at the prodding of Russia.

[Long Editor's Note: In addition to those reasons listed above, the Georgian military is plagued with widespread incompetence. To illustrate this, earlier this week there were reports of gunfire at a Georgian army base. Responding to questions as to whether this was politically motivated, the Georgian ambassador responded that the shooting was started by 10-15 conscript soldiers under the influence of alcohol. It reminds me of the time when an old classmate of mine had burned half his high school down, and was visited at home by the police for questioning. His airtight alibi? That he couldn't have committed arson that day because he'd skipped school to stay home, drink vodka, and snort cocaine.]

Now, consider what happened at the United Nations yesterday: Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili claimed, before the General Assembly, that on September 20th Georgian forces had detained a group of militants led by a Russian Colonel in the mountains just across the border from Abkhazia. Saakashvili pointedly asked just what the hell the Russians thought they were doing? The Russian reponse came from Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who claimed that the Russians were on an anti-terrorism excercise, and that after surrendering their arms to the Georgians, two Russian officers were savagely executed.

Interesting that the Russians would wait a week to announce this fairly significant incident. Either they just found out about it, or they are lying and just want to raise the stakes. Either way, their options are limited, now: either they let Georgia believe it's ok to execute their officers, or they throw down. It's reminiscent of that one time a certain presidential administration cited the presence of WMDs as cause for intervention. Hmmmm. In any case, if Russia really is planning to move on Georgia, it knows this is the perfect time. With America tied down in Iraq, it's in no position to help out its ally.

Doodily Ding-Dong Tick-Tock!

Everything is just so...brutal today.

Following up on the Israeli airstrike story, there are reports that a team of crack Israeli commandos raided a military site somewhere in Syria and seized North Korean nuclear material. The Syrians denied that anything happened but would respond more completely at a later time. The Israelis have said nothing at all. What a pain in the ass it is to try and report news about the Near East.

The incoming prime minister of Japan, replacing the recently resigned Shinzo Abe, is named Fukuda. Full name Yasuo Fukuda, but I will call him Jun.

A story appeared in Newsweek recently, claiming that Dick Cheney was thinking about asking Israel to launch a missile strike against Iran, so that Iran would retaliate, so the U.S. would have pretext to launch attacks against Iran. Really. That's the extent of it. According to the article, he hasn't even spoken to any Israelis about the idea. So that's the whole story? Why stop there, as I'm sure Cheney has probably thought about nuking California and having his children assassinated. That sounds like a much more interesting non-story. Get your sh*t together, Newsweek.

And on that note, here's a dose of the Metalocalypse season premiere! The record comes out tomorrow. I'm not sure if I should just buy it on iTunes, or get the cd, there's probably cool extra crap if I get the cd, but it will cost more. Decisions.

Toki: You know, maced turkeys isn't that bads. It tastes stingy!
Skwisgaar: Yah it makes my tongues numbs but, yah it's goods!
Murderface: Yeah it's good for lunchmeat, ya know, if you're on the go like me...I'm on the go, usually.
Lawyer: You wanted to, talk to me?
Murderface: Uh, yeah. Siddown.
Lawyer: No thank you, I'll stand.
Nathan: Oh, we wanted to say...we're sorry...there. There you go. Get outta here.
Lawyer: You're sorry. For...releasing dangerous criminals back into the streets?
Nathan: Uh, about calling you a robot. You, you're--
Toki: You not a robot.
Nathan: --not a robot.
Toki: Not a robot.
Murderface: No you are not.
Nathan: You're not.
Murderface: And we know that must have made you feel bad.
Lawyer: mm-hmm.
Skwisgaar (mouth full of maced turkey): Ands listens, yous the best butlers we's ever hads, so we no wants yous to quit.
Lawyer: I'm, uh, not a butler...never mind. That's all, then?
Pickles: Dat's it. I mean, uh, we're glad you forced us out there, again. Y'know, it felt good. Y--Y'know, couple tings I woulda done differently...
Lawyer: You mean, like, not blind the stage driver and crash it into a prison of dangerous criminals?
Pickles: Hehhh, no, dat was a happy accident. [sigh] I was talkin' about the lighting? Y'know, changin' dat up a little bit? Not by much, just slightly? Y'know, cuz the mood wasn't totally captured? Not totally?
Lawyer: Very well.
Skwisgaar (mouth still full of maced turkey): And I would have turns, yah know, Murderface and Tokis down a little in the main mix, yah know...[trails off]
Murderface: Yeah, just the little things, you know, I wasn't crazy about my new boots either, comfort while playing is reeeeeally important, you know.
Nathan: Yeah, it is, it is. But no big deal. You'll get 'em next time. But, oh, hey. Hey.
Lawyer: ...Yes?
Nathan: Keep up the great work. See ya later.
Lawyer: Goodbye. Oh...remember, start thinking about that new record.
Murderface: ROBOT!

OK, Mr. Honky Mo-Fo, take your best shot!

So, apparently there are signs all over the world that there is a global recession coming. I've found no confident predictions as to its length and depth, but the Federal Reserve just cut the interest rate by a half-percent to 4.75%, and that's the first cut it's made in four years. So, now's the time to start stuffing those mattresses. Nah, I'm just joshing. Coffee cans are a better idea.

You may not be aware that the U.S. military does not actually take care of all of our security interests in Iraq. The smelly infestation of contractors that swarms all over our tax dollars (I may end up working for one of them someday, in which case, I will not retract that comment) extends into Iraqi security. One of the most significant of these contractors is Blackwater, USA, founded, run, and staffed by the kind of guys that always reminds me of an old Robin Williams movie, The Survivors. Basically, they are crazy mercenaries like the guy pictured at right.

So anyway, Blackwater's main duty in-country involves moving high-profile targets (diplomats, local politicians) from Point A through dangerous territory to Point B. So it happens that, during one of these Crazy-Taxi-esque runs, the convoy gets ambushed and a shootout ensues. Blackwater's helicopters (helicopters!) arrive to support, and some people that pretty much everyone involved agrees are civilians (damn insurgent conflicts, it's so hard to tell sometimes) are shot and killed in the crossfire.

And lo, the nascent Iraqi government decides to flex its new muscles. "Blackwater must go!" It cries (in Arabic, probably).

Now, the numbers I've got show that there's around 30,000 contract security employees in Iraq, and Blackwater accounts for about 1,500 of them. That's not a terribly significant loss by the numbers, but the significance of firing them over something like this is much greater. It would almost certainly lead to a spike in attacks on contractors, in an attempt to provoke more unfortunate accidents and subsequent sackings. If they could decrease the overall U.S. presence in-country by 30,000, or even just force the U.S. to fill those numbers in with uniformed troops, it would be quite the setback.

So, to summarize, the Iraqi government and the Pentagon have a conflict of interests.

Or rather, had. Today it was announced that Blackwater will be allowed to stay and do what it was doing, but all of its operations must be approved beforehand (by whom isn't clear). What a completely meaningless slap on the wrist. Nobody wouldn't have approved the operation that started this whole mess anyway. To know whether the contractors were really at fault requires having seen the incident firsthand, but it's not important whether their expulsion was just or not. What's important is that the Iraqi government just attempted to make a decision and was promptly emasculated by the Americans.

While that's probably where this story will end (unless Blackwater or another security company does something outrageous, like rape a child), the Iraqi Interior Ministry is drawing up legislation that will allow them to prosecute any contractors who fail to adhere to certain "guidelines". We'll see how far that goes.

Israeli Airstrike Update!

The plot continues to thicken.

Yesterday, Israel's former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly praised the current president, Ehud Olmert, for the airstrike in Syria. Of course, he said nothing specific about what its purpose was. From what I have been given to understand about Israeli politics, Netanyahu and Olmert are political rivals, so for the former to publicly support the latter while mentioning no details concerning the attack itself...and Syria, who would normally jump at the chance to blacken Israel's eye, remains silent. Oooh, goosebumps.

And remember, this all happened on the border with Turkey, who just might be a factor in why nobody's talking. Possibly, the Turks were moving something across the border, or had some other kind of direct involvement. That might explain why Israel is clamming up, to save Turkey the embarrassment--this incident aside, the two countries have a very real strategic need for each other.

But...

WHAT the hell was the target?

That's Nobody's Business But The Turks...and the Syrians...

On a slow news day, one can usually find something in the Middle East to put on the front page. But this isn't just a typical strife story. Have a look:

On September 6, a report came out of Syria that single Israeli aircraft had entered Syrian airspace, dropped ordnance in the northern part of the country, and was forced to leave by Syrian air defenses. Yet, the Syrians reported no damage.

Then, Turkish officials inform the Syrians that two Israeli auxiliary fuel tanks were found on the Turkish side of their border with Syria. This makes sense, as the discovered Israeli aircraft would likely have jettisoned its tanks and fled after being caught by the Syrians. But it brings up questions: Why do the Turks give a damn, since they have a fairly close military relationship with Israel, and what the hell were the Israelis going after?

I'll start with the second question. The Washington Post reported that the intended target by Israel was a facility designated by Syria as performing "Agricultural Research". The attack coincided with the arrival in a Syrian port of North Korean ships bearing cargo labeled "cement". I'm sure it is, since cement is the only thing besides dirt that North Korea is in any shape to export these days. Oh, dirt and nuclear material/technology/expertise. So some surreptitious nuclear program was probably the target of Israel's incursion, right?

Maybe not. Syria and Turkey are not best buddies, and it's unlikely that the Syrians could be carrying out nuclear research within slingshot range without Turkey's knowledge, let alone consent. So, it makes more sense when an Israeli leak to the London Times indicates that the target was a warehouse of chemical weapons. But only a little more sense.

The point is, whether it's chemical or nuclear, there is no reason why Syria would opt to put it so close to Turkey, and no reason why Israel, not Turkey, would have to deal with it, unless the Syrians and Turks know something that we don't. But Israel does, or at least suspects enough not to trust its ally in the region.

Bottom line, there's far more questions than answers right now, and it may stay that way. Israel, however, doesn't throw its weight around unless it feels it is responding to an imminent threat (and the argument can certainly be made that an imminent threat is ever-present for that country). Possibly Hezbollah is somehow involved in this. Turkey's aspirations to get into the EU could play some very circuitous role in all of this, as well.

Christ, I miss the Cold War

Some important developments in Eastern Europe.

Recently, Vladimir Putin dismissed Mikhail Fradkov as Prime Minister and dissolved his cabinet. This was not an unexpected or terribly inappropriate move, but Putin's nomination of Viktor Zubkov over more experienced and well-known likely successors is cause for concern.

Zubkov currently runs a watchdog agency that investigates financial improprieties such as counterfeiting and tax evasion, and was involved in the epic takedown of Russian oil mogul Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who was unique among his country's business oligarchs in that he ran a transparent business in order to spur Western investment, and also taking public stances against Putin--something which almost certainly resulted in the tax investigations.

Zubkov also worked under Putin in the city administration of St. Petersburg in the 1990s.

Add to all of this that the Russians exploded a new conventional bomb today. While it is non-nuclear, it is said to possess the destructive power of a nuke. The question is really about how close Putin can bring Russia to the "good old days" of Soviet power while maintaining a veneer of democracy, if he even gives a damn about that. Putin is currently scheduled to step down as President after the March elections.

In a related issue, the political situation in neighboring Ukraine (NEVER refer to the country as "The Ukraine". Ukrainians find it demeaning, as I learned the hard way while trying to seduce a lovely girl from Kiev at a party) has become ever more volatile. You may remember the presidential election there in 2004 between pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko and pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich (who was then, and still is, Prime Minister of the Ukrainian parliament, called the Rada). Yushchenko, who had a JFK-style youthful appearance, was poisoned with a chemical that turned his face into a hideous mass of blisters and lesions. Nothing was ever proved, but the prevailing belief is that the Russian FSB (successor of the KGB) was behind the effort. Ugliness notwithstanding, Yushchenko prevailed in a close election.

Yushchenko recently dissolved the Rada and called for new elections, an action well within his power as President. Yanukovich, fearing that the new elections would result in losses across the board for his pro-Russian faction, frantically (and almost certainly with Russian backing) struck deals with enough members of parliament to suspend the elections, scheduled for September 30th.

As the law is clearly on the side of Yushchenko here, it is more likely that the elections will proceed as scheduled, but this is not a certainty. The aforementioned events in Russia suggest that Putin is prepared to take an even more active hand in Ukraine than he did in 2004, and as the United States is considerably more distracted with Iraq, nothing is certain as to the outcome of this little struggle.