Monday, September 17, 2007

That's Nobody's Business But The Turks...and the Syrians...

On a slow news day, one can usually find something in the Middle East to put on the front page. But this isn't just a typical strife story. Have a look:

On September 6, a report came out of Syria that single Israeli aircraft had entered Syrian airspace, dropped ordnance in the northern part of the country, and was forced to leave by Syrian air defenses. Yet, the Syrians reported no damage.


Then, Turkish officials inform the Syrians that two Israeli auxiliary fuel tanks were found on the Turkish side of their border with Syria. This makes sense, as the discovered Israeli aircraft would likely have jettisoned its tanks and fled after being caught by the Syrians. But it brings up questions: Why do the Turks give a damn, since they have a fairly close military relationship with Israel, and what the hell were the Israelis going after?


I'll start with the second question. The Washington Post reported that the intended target by Israel was a facility designated by Syria as performing "Agricultural Research". The attack coincided with the arrival in a Syrian port of North Korean ships bearing cargo labeled "cement". I'm sure it is, since cement is the only thing besides dirt that North Korea is in any shape to export these days. Oh, dirt and nuclear material/technology/expertise. So some surreptitious nuclear program was probably the target of Israel's incursion, right?


Maybe not. Syria and Turkey are not best buddies, and it's unlikely that the Syrians could be carrying out nuclear research within slingshot range without Turkey's knowledge, let alone consent. So, it makes more sense when an Israeli leak to the London Times indicates that the target was a warehouse of chemical weapons. But only a little more sense.


The point is, whether it's chemical or nuclear, there is no reason why Syria would opt to put it so close to Turkey, and no reason why Israel, not Turkey, would have to deal with it, unless the Syrians and Turks know something that we don't. But Israel does, or at least suspects enough not to trust its ally in the region.


Bottom line, there's far more questions than answers right now, and it may stay that way. Israel, however, doesn't throw its weight around unless it feels it is responding to an imminent threat (and the argument can certainly be made that an imminent threat is ever-present for that country). Possibly Hezbollah is somehow involved in this. Turkey's aspirations to get into the EU could play some very circuitous role in all of this, as well.

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