Christ, I miss the Cold War part II

--A representative of the extremely fun-to-pronounce Russian arms manufacturer Rosoboronexport has announced that sales to Venezuela stand at US$4 billion and they are expected to double or triple in the next couple years. Ships, planes, helicopters, the works. Of course, it's nothing the U.S. couldn't vaporize in two days, but it is more than enough to lend serious credibility to Venezuela as it continues to project its influence throughout less-well-armed Central and South America.

--Russia is also continuing to make its presence uncomfortably felt in the whole Iraq-Iran theatre, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is planning a trip to Tehran to visit President Ahmedinejad, the 2nd major Russia-Iran diplomatic meeting this month. Iran needs a dancing partner to get some leverage against the United States and its allies where Iraq is concerned, and Russia is all too happy to be That Guy these days, as previous posts have shown. While these developments are troublesome for the United States, the good news is that whatever the relationship between these two SOBs, Russia is even less interested in seeing Iran go nuclear than the U.S. is, so their backing of Iran is likely coming in exchange for Iran's total cooperation on the nuclear issue.

--In Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic, the government reportedly foiled a "large-scale horrifying terror attack" that targeted Azeri government facilities as well as the British and American embassies in the capital, Baku. The British have closed their embassy and the Americans have reportedly scaled down operations at theirs. The plotters were, duh, a radical Islamist group. It hasn't yet been reported which one.

--The most destabilizing organization in world history, D-Generation X, is reportedly re-forming briefly on the evening of November 5. This analyst is very excited.

Beer and Bullets

Chinese brewery Tsingtao is going to be opening up a new plant in Thailand soon. Whatever, conquer that market, just export more of that good stuff to the states.

The Turkey-Iraq issue is beginning to bog down. A couple of days ago a few hundred Turkish soldiers crossed the border and went about six miles into Iraq, then withdrew back to Turkey. This was accompanied by artillery fire and airstrikes. For all the fuss and bluster (fluster) about a massive invasion of the Iraqi north, winter is coming and any large-scale military operation is going to turn into a logistical nightmare in the mountainous borderlands. Still, expect the Turks to keep the appearance intact that such an operation is waiting in the wings until they get what they want, namely, the Kurdish Regional Government to condemn the PKK attacks, the Iraqi government to hand over any Kurdish militants it can, and the U.S. to treat Kurdish militants the same way they treat insurgents.

Brief 10/17/07

A few notes on some things:

--Syria has released a statement denying that its U.N. representative had confirmed reports that the target of the Israeli airstrike was a nuclear facility. Syria also reaffirmed that there are no nuclear facilities within its borders. So, take that for what you will.

-- The bill formally accusing Turkey of genocide 100 years ago against Armenians seems to be losing steam in Congress, according to sources quoted by Crimson Guardsman and authority on U.S. domestic politics, Cesspool. This certainly hasn't helped relations between Washington and Ankara, but it isn't as much a problem in itself as it is the excuse that an unhappy significant other seizes upon to finally justify a breakup. It's going to be a messy one, though. Turkey doesn't need America nearly as much as it used to, and the destabilization of Iraq has actually been a liability for them, but the alliance is still too important to dissolve just yet.

-- Fidel Castro is not coming back. Raul, his younger brother, has been running Cuba for just over a year now, and his tone of rhetoric represents a drastic departure from The Beard. He talks about reforming many aspects of Cuban society, specifically, loosening up the command economy and encouraging more dissenting voices. Which is nice and all, but I won't buy into it until average Cubans get more earning power and unrestricted internet access, and the political prisons are drained beyond the ceremonial five guys a year.

-- Gunmen, Somali soldiers among them, stormed the U.N. compound in Mogadishu and kidnapped the World Food Program's top representative there. Everyone loses.

Turkey Moves on Alderaan (Alderaaq?)

I've been holding out for an interesting story that wasn't about the Middle East or Russia...preferably something Scandinavian since I just got the new Dethklok album. But nothing's turning up, and events elsewhere force my hand...

Since October 7, 15 Turkish soldiers have been killed by members of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), and this has prompted emergency measures to be taken by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has stated that a request to send the military into northern Iraq could be sent to the parliament as early as tomorrow.

For those of you not familiar with the Kurdish situation, look it up because I don't know too much about it, myself. But I'll tell you what I do know. The densest concentration of Kurds stretches from southern Turkey into northern Iraq, and both countries have had their problems with separatist Kurdish elements, Turkey moreso because a democratic government is a little more hesitant about gassing its own people.

Occupying northern Iraq is, in fact, not an unprecedented move by Turkey. I was a bit surprised to learn that they did the same thing in the post-Gulf-War-I 1990s, just to create a buffer zone against incursions by the Kurds, which didn't make too many waves. So they might do the same thing again.

Only, see, things are a little different in Iraq now. With the political situation there still murky as ever, a military presence by Turkey will really complicate things. First of all, they are 99% likely to oppose any greater autonomy, let alone independence, granted to the Kurds in northern Iraq as this will embolden separatists in their own country and destabilize the areas where they live.

That, and having another regional power throwing its weight around in an already-screwed up country can't make things better. Europe has no clout to tell them to back down, since they've been blackballing Turkey from the E.U. like a black jewish communist golfer in the 50's trying to get a membership at Augusta. And while the U.S. and Turkey are allies, we need the Turks a lot more than they need us right now, so we can't do much more than ask nicely at this point.

But hey, if worse comes to worst and they DO move to occupy northern Iraq, and then worse comes to worst comes to worst and the fragile system we have put in place crumbles, we can always just bail and leave Turkey holding the bag. Nah, we really can't. But it would be pretty funny and spiteful.

Israeli Airstrike Saga Continues

Finally, someone decides to officially open their mouth.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad claims the target of the attack, which we now know was a joint operation by Israeli warplanes and a commando team on the ground, was an "abandoned military building". He cited the incident as evidence of Israel's disregard for peace, but downplayed any talk of war or further armed hostilities.

Keep moving people, nothing to see here...